Demographic Change

Pennsylvania architect Tim Haahs brought this graph to his special lecture at GSES 103 auditorium on April 23, 2010 to highlight the fundermental demographic change of Korean society. Indeed, this demographic aspect of social change has been often mentioned. Since I did not follow it in a serious manner,I hereby start to scrap the relevant media coverage.

Tim Haahs mentioned that, as we project, this demograhic change has many planning implications. He said, with population shrinking in this dramatic way, there might be no need to build more houses, more roads and more highrises - What we need to do is to just maintain them. This topic is something we must scrutinize systematically.

Low fertility rate in Korea
2005 1.08 (lowest in the world)
2006 1.12
2007 1.25
2008 1.19 (lowest in the world)

Why they do not have babies
o no marriage - like to be single
o late marriage
o employment - avoiding marriage
o only one kid
o avoid having kid - job, education cost, working woman, social pressure . . .

Why property values do not decline with shinking population
Tim Haahs thinks:
o fertily rate down, but divorce rate up - so two units demand
o early seperation of traditional family
o life style - independent choice such as expensive Starbucks coffee demand

Former Samsung business man YUN JONGYONG tells about Korea's demographic change:
(Joong Ang Sunday, 2010. 07. 04)
o Korea's current population is 48.9 million
o 20 years later, i. e. in 2030, it will be 48.65 million, a half million down
o 30 years later, i. e. in 2040, it will be 46.10 million, 2.5 million down
o Age bracket of 15-64 will decrease from 2016. This means the decrease of production and the lower growth potential. Korea will face the problem 20-30 years later.
o In comparison, Japan has a population of 127.05 million (as of 2006)
o in 2046, Japan's population will be lower than 100 million
o in 2060, Japan's population will be 89.93 million
o Japan now experiences the decrease of labor population - now 6.6 million, 50 million expected in 2030
o Japan relies on foreign labor - foreign populaton is now 2.21 million

o Kukmin Ilbo reports the striking decrease of the number of elementary school students in Seoul
o Kukmin Ilbo reports the study result of Samsung Economy Research Institute that predicts Korean people will disappear on earth in 2500 if the current demographic trend continues.
o Kukmin Ilbo reports on low fertility rate
o Chosun reports on 100-year-old life. 2011. 1. 4.

Low birthrate could slash South Korea’s youth population in half by 2060: report

AFP-JIJI, Japan Times, September 3, 2013.

               

SEOUL – South Korea’s low birthrate means the size of its youth population — those aged between 9 and 24 — will be slashed in half by 2060, a government report warned Monday.
The number of young people peaked at 14 million in 1980, accounting for 36.8 percent of the whole population, census data by the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family showed. Since then, it has steadily declined and stood at 10.2 million last year, or 20.4 percent.
The ministry said current demographic trends will see that number fall to 9.6 million by 2015, 7.1 million by 2030, 5.9 million by 2050, and just 5 million by 2060.
After years of promoting family planning in a crowded nation of 50 million, the South Korea has become increasingly alarmed by its rapidly aging society.
A rising welfare bill and a declining working population is seen as one of the most serious challenges now facing Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
By 2050, South Koreans aged 60 years or over will account for 39 percent of the population, up from 17 percent last year, according to the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
South Korea’s fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime — stood at just 1.01 in 2011, compared to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development average of 1.71.

Demographic Change in the US

o New York Tiems Report on Baby Boomer 2010. 12. 31